Start with a hypothesis, not a hope

Before you get excited, write one sentence about what you think is being offered and why it might work. This centers your judgment on facts rather than feelings.

Run the 5 quick checks

1. Clarity
   Can you explain the offer to a friend in two sentences without jargon. If not, it is probably hiding complexity or risk.
2. Source
   Who benefits if you believe this. Verify their identity, track record, and incentives. Look for independent references that are not paid or affiliated.
3. Mechanism
   What is the real cause and effect. If the explanation is magic, secret, or vague, stop.
4. Data
   Ask for numbers, sample size, and time frame. One dramatic anecdote is not proof.
5. Falsifiability
   What clear outcome would prove it wrong. If there is no way to test it, you cannot trust it.

Red flags that say slow down

• Time pressure
  You must decide right now, or you lose the deal. Scarcity is often manufactured to bypass your judgment.
• Asymmetric transparency
  They want your info or money, but will not share their own metrics, identity, or contracts in writing.
• Guaranteed outsized returns
  High gain with low risk is rare. If everyone could do it easily, markets would already have priced it in.
• Moving goalposts
  Terms change while you evaluate. Good offers get clearer as you ask questions.
• Complex fees or add-ons
  Confusing pricing usually hides the true cost. Ask for an all-in number.

Green flags that say keep evaluating

• Aligned incentives
  They only win if you win. Look for success fees, warranties, or service agreements tied to results.
• Third party proof
  Independent reviews, audited results, or recognized certifications.
• Plain language
  They can describe what it is, how it works, and why it is safe in clear terms.
• Controlled trials or pilots
  You can test on a small scale first with transparent measurement.
• Right to exit
  Clear refund windows, cancellation clauses, and no penalty for reasonable termination.

The 60 second smell test

• What would a skeptic say. Write the strongest counterpoint in one sentence.
• What would convince you either way. Name two facts that would flip your view.
• If this failed, what is the worst case. Can you live with that outcome.
• Would you advise a friend to do this with their own money or reputation. If not, why would you do it.

Deeper diligence in four steps

1. Verify people and entities
   Search corporate registries, licenses, and complaints. Call references you choose, not only the ones they provide.
2. Validate numbers
   Rebuild the math yourself. If performance claims rely on unusual assumptions, stress test them with conservative inputs.
3. Check the mechanism in the real world
   Ask for a sandbox, demo account, sample unit, or small contract. Measure results with your own tools.
4. Read the paperwork aloud
   Contracts reveal truth. Read every clause that affects price, performance, liability, and exit. Ask for written answers to any ambiguity.

How emotion distorts judgment

• Greed and fear
  Big upside or fear of missing out narrows attention. Pause for one sleep cycle before committing.
• Social proof
  Seeing others join can feel like safety. Verify whether those others are relevant to your case and not paid testimonials.
• Sunk cost
  Time invested can trap you. Your future is more valuable than your past effort.

Decision rules that protect you

• No rush rule
  You never commit on the first call or meeting.
• Two source rule
  You need two independent confirmations of any key claim.
• Pilot first rule
  Start small, cap your downside, expand only if the pilot meets prewritten metrics.
• Exit clarity rule
  If you cannot explain how you leave, you do not enter.

Examples

• Investment promise
  Claim: double your money in six months with minimal risk.
  Reality check: ask for audited statements, risk disclosures, and strategy mechanics. If answers are evasive, walk.
• Miracle health product
  Claim: cures many unrelated issues.
  Reality check: look for peer reviewed studies with adequate sample size. If evidence is testimonials and before after photos only, skip.
• Software or service pitch
  Claim: will cut your costs by half.
  Reality check: request a time boxed pilot on one team with shared metrics. Pay only after verified savings.

If you already said yes and it feels wrong

• Freeze additional exposure
  Stop sending more funds or data.
• Document everything
  Save emails, contracts, and screenshots.
  Seek support from your bank, platform, or legal counsel.
• Set a deadline for proof
  Ask for specific deliverables by a specific date. If missed, activate the exit clause.

If it is actually good

• Scale with guardrails
  Increase commitment in steps, each tied to a measurable milestone.
• Share the learning
  Write a short postmortem of what validated the offer so you can spot similar quality later.
• Keep incentives aligned
  Renew agreements based on results, not promises.

Bottom line

Good opportunities withstand scrutiny. They become clearer as you question them, not fuzzier. Use simple rules, verify with your own eyes, and keep your downside capped. If it remains solid after that, you likely found something that is not too good to be true.